ML4WX

Labs

NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

101 papers in the archive · tier-1 watchlist.

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★ SamudrACE: Fast and Accurate Coupled Climate Modeling with 3D Ocean and Atmosphere Emulators

James P. C. Duncan, Elynn Wu, Surya Dheeshjith et al. · Geophysical Research Letters ·

SamudrACE is a coupled atmosphere-ocean ML emulator giving stable centuries-long runs at 1 degree with realistic ENSO variability absent in uncoupled mode.

Climate emulationAllen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)Columbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)New York University (M2LInES)Princeton University

HRRRCast: a data-driven emulator for regional weather forecasting at convection allowing scales

Daniel Abdi, Isidora Jankov, Paul Madden et al. · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2026, Article 250061 ·

HRRRCast is a ResNet-based emulator of the HRRR convection-allowing model over CONUS, with DDIM ensembles that beat HRRR at the 20 dBZ reflectivity threshold.

Regional & km-scale modelsColorado State University (incl. CIRA)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

ACE2-SOM: Coupling an ML atmospheric emulator to a slab ocean and learning the sensitivity of climate to changed CO$_2$

Spencer K. Clark, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Anna Kwa et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation ·

Couples the ACE2 emulator to a slab ocean and trains it across CO2 levels, reproducing equilibrium warming but violating energy conservation in transient runs.

Climate emulationAllen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

Yuhei Takaya, Louis‐Philippe Caron, Eric S. Blake et al. · Tropical Cyclone Research and Review ·

Reviews seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting, including emerging ML/AI methods, ENSO-neutral predictability and landfall skill gaps relative to user needs.

Sub-seasonal to seasonalNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)NSF NCAR / UCARMet OfficeMétéo-France (incl. CNRM)Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)China Meteorological Administration (CMA)Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

DownScaleBench for developing and applying a deep learning based urban climate downscaling- first results for high-resolution urban precipitation climatology over Austin, Texas

Manmeet Singh, Nachiketa Acharya, Sajad Jamshidi et al. · Computational Urban Science ·

DownScaleBench uses an iterative super-resolution CNN to produce 300 m urban precipitation from 10 km GsMAP data over Austin, improving on cubic interpolation.

Downscaling & super-resolutionNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Sciences: An Innovative Approach for Summer School

Amy McGovern, David John Gagne, Christopher D. Wirz et al. · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ·

Describes an AI2ES summer school teaching trustworthy and explainable AI for severe storms, tropical cyclones and space weather to 677 participants.

Explainability, uncertainty & physicsNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)NSF NCAR / UCARUniversity of WashingtonColorado State University (incl. CIRA)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

Creating and Evaluating Uncertainty Estimates with Neural Networks for Environmental-Science Applications

Katherine Haynes, Ryan Lagerquist, Marie McGraw et al. · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems ·

Introduces six neural network uncertainty methods and evaluation scores for environmental science, demonstrated on dewpoint profiles and Himawari-8 convection prediction.

Explainability, uncertainty & physicsColorado State University (incl. CIRA)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Improve Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Precipitation Estimates in the Western United States

Andrew P. Osborne, Jian Zhang, Micheal J. Simpson et al. · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems ·

CNN corrects MRMS radar precipitation estimates over complex western US terrain, beating radar QPE on several atmospheric river events in a year-long evaluation.

Observations & remote sensingNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

Correcting Systematic and State‐Dependent Errors in the NOAA FV3‐GFS Using Neural Networks

Tse‐Chun Chen, Stephen Gregory Penny, Jeffrey S. Whitaker et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

Neural networks learn FV3-GFS systematic error from data assimilation analysis increments and apply online corrections, improving 10-day forecast skill at all lead times.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)Columbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)

Towards improved precipitation estimation with the GOES‐16 advanced baseline imager: Algorithm and evaluation

Shruti Ashok Upadhyaya, Pierre‐Emmanuel Kirstetter, Robert J. Kuligowski et al. · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ·

A Random Forest precipitation estimator using GOES-16 ABI infrared channels and RAP predictors over CONUS beats SCaMPR, with correlation 0.46 and HSS 0.91 vs 0.19.

Observations & remote sensingNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

Correcting a 200 km Resolution Climate Model in Multiple Climates by Machine Learning From 25 km Resolution Simulations

Spencer Koncius Clark, Noah Brenowitz, Brian Henn et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

Machine-learned corrective tendencies from 25 km simulations improve a 200 km FV3GFS model's land precipitation pattern error by 8–28% across four SST-perturbed climates.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationAllen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

An Objective Quality Control of Surface Contamination Observations for ABI Water Vapor Radiance Assimilation

Zhenglong Li, Zheng Ma, Pei Wang et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ·

Machine-learning quality control for ABI water vapor radiances blends seven bands to reject surface-contaminated pixels, improving Hurricane Harvey track forecasts.

Observations & remote sensingNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesChina Meteorological Administration (CMA)

Increasing Frequency of Anomalous Precipitation Events in Japan Detected by a Deep Learning Autoencoder

Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke et al. · Earth s Future ·

A deep autoencoder detects anomalous heavy precipitation events in Japan and attributes their increase since 1977 partly to anthropogenic forcing, with more expected this century.

Climate analysis & attributionNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)NSF NCAR / UCARPrinceton UniversityNanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST)

Can we integrate spatial verification methods into neural-network loss functions for atmospheric science?

Ryan Lagerquist, Imme Ebert-Uphoff · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems (2022), 1 (4), pg. e220021 ·

Spatially enhanced loss functions using neighbourhood and spectral filters improve neural network convection forecasts, with spectral-filter models giving better-calibrated probabilities than pixelwise training.

Benchmarks, datasets & evaluationColorado State University (incl. CIRA)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

★ Correcting Coarse‐Grid Weather and Climate Models by Machine Learning From Global Storm‐Resolving Simulations

Christopher S. Bretherton, Brian Henn, Anna Kwa et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

Machine-learned nudging tendencies correct a 200-km FV3GFS model toward 3-km X-SHiELD, gaining 18 hours of 3-7 day skill and 30% better precipitation.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationAllen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Washington

Low Cloud Detection in Multilayer Scenes Using Satellite Imagery with Machine Learning Methods

John M. Haynes, Yoo‐Jeong Noh, S. D. Miller et al. · Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology ·

Random forest and neural network models on GOES-ABI imagery improve low-cloud detection in multilayer scenes, raising probability of detection from 0.685 to 0.815 versus the CCL product.

Observations & remote sensingNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)

Correcting Weather and Climate Models by Machine Learning Nudged Historical Simulations

Oliver Watt‐Meyer, Noah Brenowitz, Spencer Koncius Clark et al. · Geophysical Research Letters ·

A random forest learns nudging tendencies and is coupled to FV3GFS, reducing 500 hPa height forecast error and annual-mean precipitation RMSE by about 20% in year-long runs.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationAllen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of WashingtonPrinceton University

Will Artificial Intelligence supersede Earth System and Climate Models?

Christopher Irrgang, Niklas Boers, Maike Sonnewald et al. · Nature Machine Intelligence ·

Perspective proposing Neural Earth System Modelling, which fuses deep networks and Earth system models into interpretable hybrids that might eventually replace them.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationColorado State University (incl. CIRA)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Princeton UniversityUniversity of Washington

MIIDAPS-AI: An Explainable Machine-Learning Algorithm for Infrared and Microwave Remote Sensing and Data Assimilation Preprocessing - Application to LEO and GEO Sensors

Eric S. Maddy, Sid‐Ahmed Boukabara · IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing ·

MIIDAPS-AI deep-learning retrieval of temperature, moisture and cloud from microwave and infrared sounders runs about 100 times faster with comparable accuracy to operational methods.

Observations & remote sensingNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques

Jui-Yuan Christine Chiu, C. Kevin Yang, Peter Jan van Leeuwen et al. · Geophysical Research Letters ·

Machine-learning-constrained autoconversion and accretion parameterizations, fitted to Azores cloud-probe data, cut uncertainty to about 15% and 5% and reveal drizzle number's role.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of WashingtonUniversity of ReadingColorado State University (incl. CIRA)

Using Machine Learning to Calibrate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System

Montgomery Flora, Corey K. Potvin, Patrick S. Skinner et al. · Monthly Weather Review ·

Random forests, gradient-boosted trees and logistic regression calibrate NOAA Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance for tornado, hail and wind, beating updraft-helicity baselines.

Post-processing & calibrationNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

Generating Probabilistic Next-Day Severe Weather Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Random Forests

Eric D. Loken, Adam James Clark, Christopher D. Karstens · Weather and Forecasting ·

Random forests convert convection-allowing ensemble forecasts into day-1 severe weather probabilities, beating calibrated updraft helicity and SPC outlooks in Brier skill, especially for wind and hail.

Post-processing & calibrationNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

Climbing down Charney's ladder: Machine Learning and the post-Dennard era of computational climate science

V. Balaji · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ·

Prospectus arguing that the end of Dennard scaling will push climate science toward combining machine learning pattern recognition with physical equations, reshaping how weather and climate are simulated.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)Princeton University

Diagnosis and Classification of Typhoon-Associated Low-Altitude Turbulence Using HKO-TDWR Radar Observations and Machine Learning

Jingxiao Cai, Yan Rockee Zhang, Richard J. Doviak et al. · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing ·

Neural network classifies typhoon low-altitude turbulence from Hong Kong terminal Doppler radar, validated against commercial aircraft turbulence measurements.

Observations & remote sensingNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)