ML4WX

Post-processing & calibration

Development of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast and Forecast Using Machine Learning

Shawn L. Handler, Heather Dawn Reeves, Amy McGovern

Weather and Forecasting · · NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC), University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

PaperPDF

In one sentence. Random forest on HRRR surface fields produces gridded CONUS probabilistic subfreezing road temperature forecasts, with a 2-h Brier skill score of 0.66.

Labels

Topic
Post-processing & calibration, Nowcasting
Type
New model or method
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
Time scale
0–6 h
Domain
Regional
Data
NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...), Station / in-situ
Status
Pre-operational / experimental
Identifiers
DOI:10.1175/waf-d-19-0159.1 OpenAlex:W3007591951
Added
2026-10-22

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