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Climate emulation

Emulators of climate models and long stable rollouts (decades to centuries), scenario emulation, emulators of the coupled climate system.

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84 papers per year

★ Highlights

★ SamudrACE: Fast and Accurate Coupled Climate Modeling with 3D Ocean and Atmosphere Emulators

James P. C. Duncan, Elynn Wu, Surya Dheeshjith et al. · Geophysical Research Letters ·

SamudrACE is a coupled atmosphere-ocean ML emulator giving stable centuries-long runs at 1 degree with realistic ENSO variability absent in uncoupled mode.

Allen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)Columbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)New York University (M2LInES)Princeton University

All papers (84)

★ SamudrACE: Fast and Accurate Coupled Climate Modeling with 3D Ocean and Atmosphere Emulators

James P. C. Duncan, Elynn Wu, Surya Dheeshjith et al. · Geophysical Research Letters ·

SamudrACE is a coupled atmosphere-ocean ML emulator giving stable centuries-long runs at 1 degree with realistic ENSO variability absent in uncoupled mode.

Allen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)Columbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)New York University (M2LInES)Princeton University

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Veronika Eyring, William D. Collins, Pierre Gentine et al. · Nature Climate Change ·

Nature Climate Change perspective on machine learning in climate modelling and analysis; abstract absent, judged from title and venue.

Allen Institute for AI (Ai2, ACE)California Institute of Technology (Caltech)Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)Columbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)Google ResearchInriaLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory / NERSCNSF NCAR / UCARNVIDIANew York University (M2LInES)University of California, BerkeleyUniversity of Oxford

Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways

Christopher Wells, Lawrence Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock et al. · Earth System Dynamics ·

Decomposes pattern scaling errors from the MESMER emulator into scenario pattern and timeseries components, showing timeseries error is about 20% for high emissions but comparable to pattern error for low emissions.

Deep learning for stochastic precipitation generation – deep SPG v1.0

Leroy J. Bird, Matthew Walker, G. E. Bodeker et al. · Geoscientific model development ·

Introduces a neural-network stochastic precipitation generator for New Zealand that reproduces daily and hourly statistics and captures climate-change drift; runs orders of magnitude faster than an RCM.

A new precipitation emulator (PREMU v1.0) for lower-complexity models

Gang Liu, Shushi Peng, Chris Huntingford et al. · Geoscientific model development ·

Data-calibrated PREMU emulator predicts ESM precipitation from gridded temperature modes, reproducing global land precipitation interannual variability (R 0.82-0.93) across nine models.

Toward Efficient Calibration of Higher‐Resolution Earth System Models

Christopher G. Fletcher, William McNally, John G. Virgin et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

A CNN emulates perturbed-parameter ensembles of a higher-resolution Earth system model from few high-resolution runs, making calibration 20-40% more efficient.

Climate Modeling with Neural Diffusion Equations

Jeehyun Hwang, Jeongwhan Choi, Hwangyong Choi et al. · arXiv ·

Proposes neural diffusion equations, combining neural ODEs with diffusion, for climate modeling; it beats eleven baselines on two real and one synthetic dataset.

DeepClimGAN: A High-Resolution Climate Data Generator

Alexandra Puchko, Robert P. Link, Brian Hutchinson et al. · arXiv ·

DeepClimGAN, a conditional GAN, emulates Earth system model daily weather under chosen scenarios to sample extremes far more cheaply than full ESM runs.

Meta-modeling strategy for data-driven forecasting

Dominic J. Skinner, Romit Maulik · arXiv ·

Meta-modeling uses cheap low-fidelity models to skip costly high-fidelity evaluations when predicting temperature fields, giving an adaptive training strategy for geophysical emulation.

PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate

Philip B. Holden, Neil Robert Edwards, Thiago Fernando Rangel et al. · Geoscientific model development ·

Gaussian process emulators of PLASIM-GENIE ensembles produce a downscaled, high-resolution reconstruction of Pliocene-Pleistocene temperature and precipitation at 1,000-year intervals.

Differentiable Physics-informed Graph Networks

Sungyong Seo, Yan Liu · arXiv ·

Differentiable physics-informed graph networks inject domain physics into latent space, improving climate prediction tasks and multistep forecasting; details are limited in the abstract.

Also relevant (62)

Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Earth System Models

Paul A. Ullrich, Elizabeth A. Barnes, William D. Collins et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation ·

Five recommendations for standardized, independent evaluation of ML-based Earth system models, stressing physical consistency for climate projections without historical analogues.

Benchmarks, datasets & evaluationColorado State University (incl. CIRA)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory / NERSCNSF NCAR / UCAROak Ridge National LaboratoryUniversity of California, Berkeley

Transferring climate change physical knowledge

Francesco Immorlano, Veronika Eyring, Thomas le Monnier de Gouville et al. · Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (15) e2413503122, 2025 ·

Transfer learning merges Earth system model simulations with historical observations to cut the spread of 21st-century global temperature projections by more than 50%.

Climate analysis & attribution

Earth Virtualization Engines: A Technical Perspective

Torsten Hoefler, Björn Stevens, Andreas Franz Prein et al. · Computing in Science & Engineering ·

Position paper on Earth Virtualization Engines that pair high-resolution physics-based climate models with machine learning and federated access to exabyte-scale climate data.

Software, scaling & compressionCSCS - Swiss National Supercomputing CentreETH ZurichMeteoSwissMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyNSF NCAR / UCARNVIDIAUniversity of Reading

Differentiable Programming for Earth System Modeling

Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany et al. · Geoscientific Model Development, 2023, Volume 16, Issue 11, 3123-3135 ·

Argues that making Earth system models automatically differentiable enables objective calibration and hybrid ML components, targeting climate sensitivity, spatial biases and abrupt transitions.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Technical University of Munich (TUM)

Physically Constrained Generative Adversarial Networks for Improving Precipitation Fields from Earth System Models

Philipp Hess, Markus Drüke, Stefan Petri et al. · Nature Machine Intelligence ·

A physically constrained GAN corrects Earth system model precipitation, fixing local distributions and the double-peaked ITCZ while preserving global precipitation sums under future scenarios.

Downscaling & super-resolutionPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Technical University of Munich (TUM)

Physics-informed machine learning: case studies for weather and climate modelling

K. Kashinath, M. Mustafa, A. Albert et al. · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences ·

Surveys physics-informed ML approaches with ten case studies for emulating, downscaling and forecasting weather and climate, reporting greater consistency and data efficiency.

Explainability, uncertainty & physicsCalifornia Institute of Technology (Caltech)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory / NERSCNVIDIAStanford UniversityUniversity of California, Berkeley

Use of neural networks for stable, accurate and physically consistent parameterization of subgrid atmospheric processes with good performance at reduced precision

Janni Yuval, Paul A. O'Gorman, Chris N. Hill · Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091363 (2021) ·

Physically constrained neural network subgrid parameterization trained on high-resolution simulations stays stable in coupled runs and tolerates reduced numerical precision.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Using machine learning to build temperature-based ozone parameterizations for climate sensitivity simulations

Peer Johannes Nowack, Peter Braesicke, Joanna D. Haigh et al. · Environmental Research Letters ·

Linear ML regression predicts 3D ozone from temperature alone, improving stratospheric ozone variability over fixed climatology for preindustrial and 4xCO2 climate sensitivity runs.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationUniversity of Cambridge (Aardvark)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

★ Deep learning to represent sub-grid processes in climate models

Stephan Rasp, Michael S. Pritchard, Pierre Gentine · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2018, 201810286; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810286115 ·

A neural network trained on cloud-resolving output replaces subgrid convection in a global climate model, giving stable multi-year runs that capture precipitation extremes and approximately conserve energy.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationColumbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)