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Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

27 papers in the archive.

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Unravelling the role of increased model resolution in simulating surface temperature fields using explainable AI

Simon Michel, Kristian Strømmen, Jürgen Kröger et al. · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems ·

CNN classifier with explainable AI identifies which climate models and resolutions produce winter surface temperature fields, showing ocean eddy resolution drives model similarity.

Climate analysis & attributionMet OfficeMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyUniversity of Oxford

The convergence of machine learning and data assimilation in Earth system science

Rossella Arcucci, S. Healy, S. Dance et al. · npj Artificial Intelligence ·

Review arguing machine learning and data assimilation are converging, with ML accelerating DA and DA supplying uncertainty quantification and physical constraints.

Data assimilationBureau of Meteorology (Australia)Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)ECMWFMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyNASANOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)University of Reading

Extending ENSO Prediction beyond 18 Months through Stage-consistent Ocean Internal Dynamics Based on Deep Learning

Yu Weng, Xiefei Zhi, Jingyu Wang et al. · Research Square ·

A deep learning approach using stage-consistent ocean dynamics claims to extend ENSO prediction beyond 18 months; the abstract is missing, so details are unverified.

Sub-seasonal to seasonalChina Meteorological Administration (CMA)Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyNanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST)

★ Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Robert C. J. Wills, Clara Deser, Karen A. McKinnon et al. · Journal of Climate ·

Intercomparison of statistical and machine learning methods for estimating forced climate response from single realizations; skilful in models but divergent when applied to observations.

Climate analysis & attributionColorado State University (incl. CIRA)ETH ZurichMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyNSF NCAR / UCARNOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)New York University (M2LInES)Stanford UniversityUniversity of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)University of Oxford

Hybrid‐Modeling of Land‐Atmosphere Fluxes Using Integrated Machine Learning in the ICON‐ESM Modeling Framework

Reda ElGhawi, Christian Reimers, Reiner Schnur et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

Feed-forward networks trained on FLUXNET replace JSBACH4 stomatal and photosynthesis parameterizations inside ICON-ESM, reducing flux residuals against observations.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationMax Planck Institute for BiogeochemistryMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyTechnical University of Munich (TUM)

Interpretable Machine Learning‐Based Radiation Emulation for ICON

Katharina Hafner, Fernando Iglesias‐Suarez, Sara Shamekh et al. · Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation ·

Bidirectional LSTM emulates ICON radiative heating rates accurately, and SHAP analysis shows the learned relationships match radiative physics.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationColumbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyNew York University (M2LInES)

mloz: A Highly Efficient Machine Learning-Based Ozone Parameterization for Climate Sensitivity Simulations

Yiling Ma, Nathan Luke Abraham, Stefan Versick et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

mloz is a machine-learning ozone parameterization that runs about 31 times faster than UKESM chemistry, enables interactive ozone in CMIP-style runs and transfers to ICON.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyUniversity of Cambridge (Aardvark)

Integration of a Deep‐Learning‐Based Fire Model Into a Global Land Surface Model

Rackhun Son, Tobias Stacke, Veronika Gayler et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

A deep-learning burnt-area model coupled into the JSBACH4 land surface model of ICON-ESM improves global fire simulation (monthly r 0.79 vs −0.07 for the standard scheme), with LRP attribution.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationMax Planck Institute for BiogeochemistryMax Planck Institute for Meteorology

Interpretable multiscale Machine Learning-Based Parameterizations of Convection for ICON

Helge Heuer, Mierk Schwabe, Pierre Gentine et al. · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2024MS004398 ·

Trains U-Net and gradient-boosted tree convection parameterizations for ICON from filtered high-resolution data; ablated U-Net runs stably for 180 days online with better precipitation extremes.

Hybrid physics-ML & parameterizationColumbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Earth Virtualization Engines: A Technical Perspective

Torsten Hoefler, Björn Stevens, Andreas Franz Prein et al. · Computing in Science & Engineering ·

Position paper on Earth Virtualization Engines that pair high-resolution physics-based climate models with machine learning and federated access to exabyte-scale climate data.

Software, scaling & compressionCSCS - Swiss National Supercomputing CentreETH ZurichMeteoSwissMassachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyNSF NCAR / UCARNVIDIAUniversity of Reading

Outcomes of the WMO Prize Challenge to Improve Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictions Using Artificial Intelligence

F. Vitart, A. W. Robertson, A. Spring et al. · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ·

WMO prize challenge winners used AI to post-process ECMWF S2S forecasts, beating bias-corrected references for weeks 3-6 precipitation and temperature.

Sub-seasonal to seasonalColumbia University (LEAP, Lamont-Doherty)Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)ECMWFMax Planck Institute for MeteorologySwiss Data Science Center (SDSC)

TIMBER v0.1: a conceptual framework for emulating temperature responses to tree cover change

Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab et al. · Geoscientific model development ·

A statistical GAM emulator predicts local surface temperature responses to tree cover change from ESM output, offering a cheap complement to greenhouse-gas emulators.

Climate emulationETH ZurichKNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)Max Planck Institute for BiogeochemistryMax Planck Institute for Meteorology