ML4WX

Post-processing & calibration

Postprocessing Next-Day Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Using Random Forests

Eric D. Loken, Adam James Clark, Amy McGovern, Montgomery L. Flora, Kent H. Knopfmeier

Weather and Forecasting · · NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC), University of Oklahoma (AI2ES)

PaperPDF

In one sentence. Random forest calibrates 12–36 h SREF and HREFv2 precipitation ensembles over CONUS, improving reliability and Brier skill over raw and smoothed probabilities.

Labels

Topic
Post-processing & calibration
Type
New model or method
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
Time scale
6 h–3 days
Domain
Regional
Data
NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...)
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.1175/waf-d-19-0109.1 OpenAlex:W2981173151
Added
2026-10-22

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