NWPP-EDH: Numerical weather prediction products evaporation duct regional prediction model

Xingyu Chai, Jincai Li, Jun Zhao, Yifan Hu, Xiaofeng Zhao

Frontiers in Earth Science · 12 January 2023

In one sentence. NWPP-EDH maps regional evaporation duct height from NWP products, reducing RMSE 61–87% versus classical theoretical duct models.

Abstract

The evaporation duct is a special atmospheric stratification that can affect the propagation path of electromagnetic waves at sea, thus it is crucial for the ability of the radio communication systems. The traditional theoretical models of the evaporation duct often have limited accuracy. The actual observational data from voyages and stations are insufficient, and the existing data-driven evaporation duct height prediction models can only predict a particular point or route but cannot reproduce the regional distribution of the evaporation duct. To address these issues, we propose NWPP-EDH model in this work. The fitting ability of the NWPP-EDH model was tested. Its accuracy was compared with that of the Babin–Young–Carton model, Musson–Gauthier–Bruth model, and the classical Naval Postgraduate School model; compared to these models, the root mean square error (RMSE) of NWPP-EDH model was reduced by 71.8%, 87%, and 60.9%, respectively. Thus, we find that the model shows a better performance than the existing theoretical models.

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