Daily Variation and Regional Differences in Wind Power Output during Heat and Cold Wave Days in China

Yang Liu, Jie Bai

International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems · 19 September 2023

In one sentence. A stacking ensemble ML model projects heat and cold wave days in China to 2060, showing wind power output falls during heat waves and rises during cold waves.

Abstract

China currently boasts the largest installed capacity of wind power; however, its output is unstable and highly dependent on weather variability. Despite this, the influence of extreme weather events on wind energy production at the interprovincial scale in China has not been fully characterized. This study aims at investigating the daily variations and regional differences in wind power output during heat wave (HW) and cold wave (CW) days in six regions of China. In addition, the study projects the monthly changes in HW and CW days in the coming decades by utilizing a stacking ensemble machine learning method. The projections are under a real-world warming scenario that incorporates current and long-term actions or policies. The findings of the study reveal that, for most regions, the daily cumulative wind power generation on HW days is close to that on normal days; however, there is a lower output during the daytime and a higher output at night. Furthermore, the number of HW days is projected to increase by 2.3 to 21.8 days during the periods of 2031–2040, 2041–2050, and 2051–2060 in these regions. By comparison, the daily cumulative wind power generation increases significantly on CW days, and the monthly distribution of CW days is expected to undergo notable changes in the future. These findings provide valuable insights into wind resource planning and operation under extreme weather conditions in China.

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