Omnivision forecasting: Combining satellite and sky images for improved deterministic and probabilistic intra-hour solar energy predictions

Quentin Paletta, Guillaume Arbod, Joan Lasenby

Applied Energy · 13 February 2023 · University of Cambridge (Aardvark)

In one sentence. Combines sky images and satellite observations in one ML framework for deterministic and probabilistic intra-hour solar irradiance nowcasts up to 60 minutes ahead.

Abstract

Integrating large proportions of intermittent renewable energy sources into electric grids is challenging. A well-established approach aimed at addressing this difficulty involves the anticipation of the upcoming energy supply variability to adapt the response of the grid. In solar energy, short-term changes in electricity production caused by occluding clouds can be predicted at different time scales from all-sky cameras (up to 30-min ahead) and satellite observations (up to 6 h ahead). In this study, we integrate these two complementary points of view on the cloud cover in a single machine learning framework to improve intra-hour (up to 60-min ahead) irradiance forecasting. Both deterministic and probabilistic predictions are evaluated in different weather conditions (clear-sky, cloudy, overcast) and with different input configurations (sky images, satellite observations and/or past irradiance values). Our results show that the hybrid model benefits predictions in clear-sky conditions and improves longer-term forecasting. This study lays the groundwork for future innovative approaches of combining sky images and satellite observations in a single learning framework to advance solar nowcasting.

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