Easy-to-use spatial random-forest-based downscaling-calibration method for producing precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy

Chuanfa Chen, Baojian Hu, Yanyan Li

Hydrology and earth system sciences · 03 November 2021

In one sentence. Spatial random forest downscales and calibrates IMERG satellite precipitation in Sichuan using gauges and covariates, outperforming GWR, ANN and kriging.

Abstract

Abstract. High resolution and accurate precipitation data is significantly important for numerous hydrological applications. To enhance the spatial resolution and accuracy of satellite-based precipitation products, an easy-to-use downscaling-calibration method based on spatial Random Forest (SRF) is proposed in this paper, where the spatial autocorrelation between precipitation measurements is taken into account. The proposed method consists of two main stages. Firstly, the satellite-based precipitation was downscaled by SRF with the incorporation of some high-resolution covariates including latitude, longitude, DEM, NDVI, terrain slope, aspect, relief, and land surface temperatures. Then, the downscaled precipitation was calibrated by SRF with rain gauge observations and the aforementioned high-resolution variables. The monthly Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) located in Sichuan province, China from 2015 to 2019 was processed using our method and its results were compared with those of some classical methods including geographically weighted regression (GWR), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), kriging interpolation only on gauge measurements, bilinear interpolation-based downscaling and then SRF-based calibration (Bi-SRF), and SRF-based downscaling and then geographical difference analysis (GDA)-based calibration (SRF-GDA). Results show that: (1) the proposed method outperforms the other methods as well as the original IMERG; (2) the monthly-based SRF estimation is slightly more accurate than the annual-based SRF fraction disaggregation method; (3) SRF-based downscaling and calibration preforms better than bilinear downscaling (Bi-SRF) and GDA-based calibration (SRF-GDA); (4) kriging seems more accurate than GWR and ANN in terms of quantitative accuracy measures, whereas its precipitation map cannot capture the detailed spatial precipitation patterns; and (5) among the predictors for calibration, the precipitation interpolated by kriging on the gauge measurements is the most important variable, indicating the significance for the inclusion of spatial autocorrelation information in gauge measurements.

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