ML4WX

Climate analysis & attribution

Characterisation of Atlantic meridional overturning hysteresis using Langevin dynamics

Jelle van den Berk, Sybren Drijfhout, Wilco Hazeleger

Earth System Dynamics · · KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)

PaperPDF

In one sentence. A machine learning fit of a six-parameter Langevin model reproduces AMOC collapse trajectories from intermediate-complexity climate models under freshwater forcing.

Abstract

Abstract. Using a machine learning technique, collapse trajectories of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from climate models of intermediate complexity are fitted to a simple model based on the Langevin equation. A total of six parameters are sufficient to quantitatively describe the collapses seen in these simulations under a freshwater forcing. Reversing the freshwater forcing results in asymmetric behaviour that is less well captured and would require a more complicated model.

Labels

Topic
Climate analysis & attribution
Type
New model or method
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels), Physics-informed / physics-constrained
Time scale
Climate projections / centennial
Domain
Global
Data
CMIP / climate model output
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.5194/esd-12-69-2021 OpenAlex:W3121534514
Added
2026-10-22

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