Application of Machine-Learning-Based Objective Correction Method in the Intelligent Grid Maximum and Minimum Temperature Predictions

Jing Liu, Chuan Ren, Ningle Yuan, Shuai Zhang, Yue Wang

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences · 01 January 2023 · China Meteorological Administration (CMA)

In one sentence. Machine-learning correction of ECMWF and grid forecasts for Shenyang station maximum and minimum temperature improves accuracy by up to 186% in some seasons.

Abstract

Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological observational data in a period of two years as the reference, the maximum and minimum temperature predictions of Shenyang station from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national intelligent grid forecasts are objectively corrected by using wavelet analysis, sliding training and other technologies. The evaluation results show that the sliding training time window of the maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature, and their difference is the largest in August, with a difference of 2.6 days. The objective correction product of maximum temperature shows a good performance in spring, while that of minimum temperature performs well throughout the whole year, with an accuracy improvement of 97% to 186%. The correction effect in the central plains is better than in the regions with complex terrain. As for the national intelligent grid forecasts, the objective correction products have shown positive skills in predicting the maximum temperatures in spring (the skill-score reaches 0.59) and in predicting the minimum temperature at most times of the year (the skill-score reaches 0.68).

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