Simulation of Daily Snow Depth Data in China Based on the NEX-GDDP

Hongju Chen, Jianping Yang, Yongjian Ding, Qingshan He, Qin Ji

Water · 15 December 2021

In one sentence. Backpropagation neural network simulates daily snow depth from NEX-GDDP downscaled projections across China to 2065, validated with r = 0.94 for monthly snow cover duration.

Abstract

In this study, a backpropagation artificial neural network snow simulation model (BPANNSIM) is built using data collected from the National Climate Reference Station to obtain simulation data of China’s future daily snow depth in terms of representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The input layer of the BPANNSIM comprises the current day’s maximum temperature, minimum temperature, snow depth, and precipitation data, and the target layer comprises snow depth data of the following day. The model is trained and validated based on data from the National Climate Reference Station over a baseline period of 1986–2005. Validation results show that the temporal correlations of the observed and the model iterative simulated values are 0.94 for monthly cumulative snow cover duration and 0.88 for monthly cumulative snow depth. Subsequently, future daily snow depth data (2016–2065) are retrieved from the NEX-GDPP dataset (Washington, DC/USA: the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)Earth Exchange/Global Daily Downscaled Projections data), revealing that the simulation data error is highly correlated with that of the input data; thus, a validation method for gridded meteorological data is proposed to verify the accuracy of gridded meteorological data within snowfall periods and the reasonability of hydrothermal coupling for gridded meteorological data.

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