FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems

Zdravko Kunić, Bernard Ženko, Biljana Mileva Boshkoska

Sensors · 13 May 2021

In one sentence. FOCUSED corrects short-term NWP wind speed forecasts for dangerous bora gusts on the Croatian Krk bridge, outperforming ANN, random forest and SVM baselines.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FOCUSED (FOrecast Correction Using Successive prEDictions), for forecast correction of short-term wind speed predictions. We developed FOCUSED with the aim of improving the forecast of bora gusts, which frequently result in high-speed wind situations dangerous for traffic. The motivation arises from occasionally ambiguous results of the currently deployed decision support system, which aids traffic management in strong and gusty wind conditions at the coast of Croatia. The proposed correction algorithm uses characteristics of numerical weather prediction models to iteratively forecast the wind speed multiple times for the same future window. We use these iterative predictions as input features of the FOCUSED algorithm and get the corrected predictions as the output. We compared the proposed algorithm with artificial neural networks, random forests, support vector machines, and linear regression to demonstrate the superiority of the algorithm's performance on a data set comprising five years of real data measurements at the Croatian bridge "Krk" and complementary historical forecasts by ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) numerical weather prediction model.

Labels

Labels and summary are generated by Claude and reviewed weekly. Wrong? Edit this entry.