A Hybrid ENSO Prediction System Based on the FIO−CPS and XGBoost Algorithm

Zhiyuan Kuang, Yajuan Song, Jie Wu, Qiuying Fu, Qi Shu, Fangli Qiao, Zhenya Song

Remote Sensing · 23 March 2023 · China Meteorological Administration (CMA)

In one sentence. XGBoost corrects FIO-CPS ENSO forecasts, raising Niño3.4 anomaly correlation at 7 to 13 month leads from 0.40 to 0.63 and cutting RMSE by 25%.

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is crucial for climate change research and disaster prevention and mitigation. In recent decades, the prediction skill for ENSO has improved significantly; however, accurate forecasting at a lead time of more than six months remains challenging. By using a machine learning method called eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), we corrected the ENSO predicted results from the First Institute of Oceanography Climate Prediction System version 2.0 (FIO−CPS v2.0) based on the satellite remote sensing sea surface temperature data, and then developed a dynamic and statistical hybrid prediction model, named FIO−CPS−HY. The latest 15 years (2007–2021) of independent testing results showed that the average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the Niño3.4 index from FIO−CPS v2.0 to FIO−CPS−HY for 7− to 13−month lead times could be increased by 57.80% (from 0.40 to 0.63) and reduced by 24.79% (from 0.86 °C to 0.65 °C), respectively. The real−time predictions from FIO−CPS−HY indicated that the sea surface state of the Niño3.4 area would likely be in neutral conditions in 2023. Although FIO−CPS−HY still has some biases in real−time prediction, this study provides possible ideas and methods to enhance short−term climate prediction ability and shows the potential of integration between machine learning and numerical models in climate research and applications.

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