Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Network

Xiaoyan Xu, Min Shao, Pulong Chen, Qin’geng Wang

Atmosphere · 12 May 2022

In one sentence. Simplified VGG-16 CNN predicts tropical cyclone intensity from reanalysis predictors, outperforming LeNet-5 and AlexNet; SST, 500 hPa temperature and vertical wind shear are the top drivers.

Abstract

In this study, deep convolutional neural network (CNN) models of stimulated tropical cyclone intensity (TCI), minimum central pressure (MCP), and maximum 2 min mean wind speed at near center (MWS) were constructed based on ocean and atmospheric reanalysis, as well Best Track of tropical hurricane data over 2014–2018. In order to explore the interpretability of the model structure, sensitivity experiments were designed with various combinations of predictors. The model test results show that simplified VGG-16 (VGG-16 s) outperforms the other two general models (LeNet-5 and AlexNet). The results of the sensitivity experiments display good consistency with the hypothesis and perceptions, which verifies the validity and reliability of the model. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the importance of predictors varies in different targets. The top three factors that are highly related to TCI are sea surface temperature (SST), temperature at 500 hPa (TEM_500), and the differences in wind speed between 850 hPa and 500 hPa (vertical wind shear speed, VWSS). VWSS, relative humidity (RH), and SST are more significant than MCP. For MWS and SST, TEM_500, and temperature at 850 hPa (TEM_850) outweigh the other variables. This conclusion also implies that deep learning could be an alternative way to conduct intensive and quantitative research.

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