Anthropocene Cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal, Prediction by SMOreg, and Odisha Coast Landfall
In one sentence. Statistical trend analysis and SMOreg regression of 1891–2020 Bay of Bengal cyclone records project cyclogenesis to 2021; ML role is minor.
Abstract
Abstract Background Recurrent tropical cyclones of thermal origin in the Bay of Bengal have regular damage to the 480km Odisha coasts of the east coast of India. The causes are violent wind, torrential rain, and storm surge inundations. The high sea surface temperature (> 270C), relative humidity, wind shear, Coriolis force, preexisting disturbances, warm oceanic current, easterly trade wind, and upper air cyclonic circulation. Odisha receives a lion’s share of the cyclogenesis of the Bay of Bengal and is shattering the coastal inhabitants and the ecosystem. Methodology and Results: The cyclone data of India Meteorological Department from 1891 to 2020, post-Holocene, pre-Anthropocene, and golden spike periods are analyzed statistically. The categorization, naming, cause of ample cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal particularly along Odisha coast are discussed in the present study. The geological stratification, meteorological players, and coastal features of Odisha coast are discussed. The trend in CD’s, CS, and SCS has been studied and prediction of these storms that shall brew and grow over Bay of Bengal fabric from 1980 to 2021, (during the golden spike period of the Anthropocene period) by using Linear regression and SMOreg soft computing machine learning model has been forecasted. Conclusions The decrease in cyclogenesis frequency but increase in amplitude, intensity, and severity is the present trend along with a southerly shift of landfall along the east coast. The reason is that the southwest monsoon brings with it high wind shear, which hinders cyclone development, and variation in wind layer shear.
Labels
- Topic
- Extremes & hazards, Climate analysis & attribution
- Type
- Application study
- Method
- Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
- Time scale
- Decadal
- Domain
- Regional
- Data
- Other
- Status
- Research
- Identifiers
- DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1433874/v1 OpenAlex:W4220980790
- Added
- 2026-10-22
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