ML4WX

Global medium-range NWP★ Highlight

A Comparison of AI Weather Prediction and Numerical Weather Prediction Models for 1–7-Day Precipitation Forecasts

Jacob T Radford, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Jebb Q. Stewart

Weather and Forecasting · · Colorado State University (incl. CIRA), NOAA (incl. GFDL, PSL, GSL, NCEP/EMC)

Paper

Why it matters. Useful CONUS verification of GraphCast precipitation versus GFS and IFS, showing AI skill on RMSE but weaker intensity and placement.

In one sentence. Verification over CONUS finds GraphCast precipitation beats GFS and IFS on RMSE and equitable metrics, but NWP better captures precipitation intensity distributions and spatial placement.

Labels

Topic
Global medium-range NWP, Benchmarks, datasets & evaluation
Type
Evaluation or intercomparison of existing models
Method
Graph neural network
Time scale
6 h–3 days, 3–15 days
Domain
Regional
Data
ERA5 / reanalysis, NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...), Radar
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.1175/waf-d-24-0081.1 OpenAlex:W4408112191
Added
2026-10-22

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