ML4WX

Explainability, uncertainty & physics

Can Ingredients-Based Forecasting Be Learned? Disentangling a Random Forest’s Severe Weather Predictions

Alexandra C. Mazurek, Aaron J. Hill, Russ S. Schumacher, Hanna J. McDaniel

Weather and Forecasting · · Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)

PaperPDF

In one sentence. Tree-interpreter analysis shows the operational CSU-MLP random forest severe-weather forecasts use ingredients consistent with severe-storm climatology.

Labels

Topic
Explainability, uncertainty & physics, Extremes & hazards
Type
Evaluation or intercomparison of existing models
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
Time scale
6 h–3 days, 3–15 days
Domain
Regional
Data
NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...)
Status
Operational
Identifiers
DOI:10.1175/waf-d-23-0193.1 OpenAlex:W4405076745
Added
2026-10-22

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