ML4WX

Post-processing & calibration

Errors of Opportunity: Using Neural Networks to Predict Errors in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) on S2S Time Scales

J. S. Cahill, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric Daniel Maloney, Stephan R. Sain, Patrick A. Harr, Luke E. Madaus

Weather and Forecasting · · Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)

Paper

In one sentence. Neural networks predict GEFS subseasonal forecast errors linked to MJO and BSISO phases, with explainability showing teleconnection-driven error sources.

Labels

Topic
Post-processing & calibration, Sub-seasonal to seasonal
Type
New model or method
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
Time scale
2 weeks–2 months
Domain
Global
Data
NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...)
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.1175/waf-d-23-0125.1 OpenAlex:W4403864144
Added
2026-10-22

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