ML4WX

Extremes & hazards

Forecasting excessive rainfall with random forests and a deterministic convection-allowing model

Aaron J. Hill, Russ S. Schumacher

Weather and Forecasting · · Colorado State University (incl. CIRA)

PaperPDF

In one sentence. Random forests trained on convection-allowing WRF output probabilistically forecast excessive rainfall over CONUS, but they consistently underperform WPC's day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks.

Labels

Topic
Extremes & hazards, Post-processing & calibration
Type
New model or method
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
Time scale
6 h–3 days
Domain
Regional
Data
NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...), Radar, Station / in-situ
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.1175/waf-d-21-0026.1 OpenAlex:W3187052348
Added
2026-10-22

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