Machine Learning Approach to Summer Precipitation Nowcasting over the Eastern Alps
In one sentence. An MLP neural network nowcasts hourly summer precipitation over the Eastern Alps, outperforming the INCA nowcasting system and a multiple linear regression baseline.
Abstract
This paper presents a new machine learning-based nowcasting model for hourly summer precipitation over the Eastern Alps. An artificial neural network (ANN) using the multi-layer perceptron algorithm was applied and evaluated against the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) nowcasting system and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model. Results show that the ANN model has a better nowcasting skill than the INCA model and the MLR model. The MLR model performs, too, also better than the INCA model. The improvement of precipitation intensity accuracy is substantial for both the morning to late evening period and for large rainfall thresholds. This study suggested that the machine learning approach is a promising methodology for precipitation forecasting.
Labels
- Topic
- Nowcasting
- Type
- New model or method
- Method
- Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
- Time scale
- 0–6 h
- Domain
- Regional
- Data
- Station / in-situ
- Status
- Research
- Identifiers
- DOI:10.1127/metz/2019/0977 OpenAlex:W2992852944
- Added
- 2026-10-22
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