ML4WX

Extremes & hazards

Exploring Physical Mechanisms for Superior Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in AI‐Based Ensemble Weather Prediction Models

Jun Liu, Tao Zhou, Jia-Rui Li, Xiao-Hui Zhong, Peng Zhang, Jie Feng, Lei Chen, Hao Li

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · · Fudan University (FuXi)

Paper

In one sentence. FuXi-ENS gives smaller TC track errors than ECMWF-ENS for 90 storms in 2018 via better steering flow, but remains underdispersive.

Labels

Topic
Extremes & hazards, Probabilistic & ensemble forecasting
Type
Evaluation or intercomparison of existing models
Method
Transformer / ViT
Time scale
3–15 days
Domain
Global
Data
NWP analysis or forecasts (IFS, GFS, ...), ERA5 / reanalysis
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.1029/2025jd046208 OpenAlex:W7167493354
Added
2026-10-22

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