Deep Learning Improves GFS Wintertime Precipitation Forecast Over Southeastern China

Danyi Sun, Wenyu Huang, Zifan Yang, Yong Ming Luo, Jing‐Jia Luo, Jonathon S. Wright, Haohuan Fu, Bin Wang

Geophysical Research Letters · 26 July 2023 · Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Tsinghua University (NowcastNet)

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In one sentence. DABU-Net, a data-augmented deep learning correction of GFS wintertime precipitation over southeastern China, cuts RMSE by 19–25% at 24–72 h.

Abstract

Abstract Wintertime precipitation, especially snowstorms, significantly impacts people's lives. However, the current forecast skill of wintertime precipitation is still low. Based on data augmentation (DA) and deep learning, we propose a DABU‐Net which improves the Global Forecast System wintertime precipitation forecast over southeastern China. We build three independent models for the forecast lead times of 24, 48, and 72 hr, respectively. After using DABU‐Net, the mean Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSEs) of the wintertime precipitation at the three lead times are reduced by 19.08%, 25.00%, and 22.37%, respectively. The threat scores (TS) are all significantly increased at the thresholds of 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 mm day−1 for the three lead times. During heavy precipitation days, the RMSEs are decreased by 14% and TS are increased by 7% at the lead times within 48 hr. Therefore, combining DA and deep learning has great prospects in precipitation forecasting.

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