Flash Drought: Review of Concept, Prediction and the Potential for Machine Learning, Deep Learning Methods

Shoobhangi Tyagi, Xiang Zhang, Dharmendra Saraswat, Sandeep Sahany, Saroj K. Mishra, Dev Niyogi

Earth s Future · 06 October 2022

In one sentence. Review of flash drought concept and the potential of machine learning and deep learning for monitoring and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of rapid drought onset.

Abstract

Abstract This paper reviews the Flash Drought concept, the uncertainties associated with FD prediction, and the potential of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep learning (DL) for future applications. For this, 121 relevant articles covering different aspects of FD ‐ definitions, key indicators, distinguishing characteristics, and the current methods for FD assessment (i.e., ‐ monitoring, prediction, and impact assessment) are examined. FD is typically a short‐term drought event ‐ characterized by the rapid progression of heat waves and precipitation deficits, causing cascading impacts on the land and surface hydrology. FD prediction is constrained by the lack of consistent FD definitions, key indicators, the limited predictability of FD at the subseasonal‐ to‐seasonal (S2S) timescale, and uncertainties associated with the current prediction methods. Some of the uncertainties in the current methods are associated with a lack of our understanding of the physical processes. They are also related to the error in the input datasets (imperfect representation of indicators), parameter uncertainty (parameterization scheme adopted by the prediction model), multicollinearity, nonlinear, and non‐stationary interactions among different indicators. Combining traditional methods and multisource fusion data with ML and DL methods shows promise to better understand FD evolution and improves prediction.

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