ML4WX

Post-processing & calibration

Optimization of Deep Learning Precipitation Models Using Categorical Binary Metrics

Pablo Larraondo, Luigi J. Renzullo, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Iñaki Inza, Jose Antonio Lozano

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ·

Paper

In one sentence. Differentiable versions of probability of detection and false alarm rate let neural precipitation forecasts be trained directly on categorical skill scores.

Abstract

Abstract This work introduces a methodology for optimizing neural network models using a combination of continuous and categorical binary indices in the context of precipitation forecasting. Probability of detection and false alarm rate are popular metrics used in the verification of precipitation models. However, machine learning models trained using gradient descent cannot be optimized based on these metrics, as they are not differentiable. We propose an alternative formulation for these categorical indices that are differentiable and we demonstrate how they can be used to optimize the skill of precipitation neural network models defined as a multiobjective optimization problem. To our knowledge, this is the first proposal of a methodology for optimizing weather neural network models based on categorical indices.

Labels

Topic
Post-processing & calibration
Type
New model or method
Method
Classical ML (trees, GP, linear, kernels)
Time scale
6 h–3 days
Domain
Regional
Data
Other
Status
Research
Identifiers
DOI:10.1029/2019ms001909 OpenAlex:W3019495891
Added
2026-10-22

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