An Artificial Neural Networks‐Based Tree Ring Width Proxy System Model for Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

Miao Fang, Xin Li

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · 28 March 2019

In one sentence. A neural-network tree-ring width proxy system model outperforms linear and VS-Lite models for paleoclimate data assimilation, ranking best among the four compared.

Abstract

Abstract Constructing suitable tree ring width (TRW) proxy system models (PSMs) is an emerging research focus in paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA). Currently, however, it is unknown as to which TRW PSMs are optimal for practical PDA applications. This study proposes an artificial neural networks (ANN)‐based TRW PSM and compares its performance with those of existing TRW PSMs, including linear univariate model, linear multivariate model, and physically based VS‐Lite model. The results show that ANN‐based TRW PSM is more suitable for practical PDA applications than other three TRW PSMs in terms of performance and universality. Overall, the performances of the four TRW PSMs in PDA can be ranked as follows (from best to worst): ANN, linear multivariate model, linear univariate model, and physically based VS‐Lite model. In addition, the results of our study not only indicate that the ANN model is a really effective tool for constructing TRW PSM in practical PDA applications but also imply that the ANN model has the potential to provide new insights into the construction of other types of PSMs (e.g., speleothem δ18O PSM) when physics of the climate‐proxy relationships cannot be described fully in advance.

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