Machine learning for downscaling: the use of parallel multiple populations in genetic programming

Dhanapala Arachchige Sachindra, Shinjiro Kanae

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment · 27 August 2019

In one sentence. Parallel multi-population genetic programming downscales large-scale predictors to daily station Tmin and Tmax, generalising better than single-deme GP with fewer outliers.

Abstract

In the implementation of traditional GP algorithm as models are evolved in a single deme (an environment in which a population of models is evolved) it may tend to produce sub-optimal models with poor generalisation skills due to lack of model diversity. As a solution to above issue, in this study the potential of evolving models in parallel multiple demes with different genetic attributes (parallel heterogeneous environments) and subsequent further evolution of some of the fittest models selected from each deme in another deme called the master deme was investigated, in relation to downscaling of large-scale climate data to daily minimum temperature (T min ) and daily maximum temperature (T max ). It was discovered that independent of the climate regime (i.e. warm or cold) and the geographic location of the observation station, a fraction of the fittest models (e.g. 25%) obtained from the last generation of each deme alone are sufficient for the formulation of a diverse initial population of models for the master deme. Also, independent of the climate regime and the geographic location of the observation station, both daily T min and T max downscaling models developed with the parallel multi-population genetic programming (PMPGP) algorithm showed better generalisation skills compared to that of models developed with the traditional single deme GP, even when the amount of redundant information in the data of predictors was high. The models developed for daily T min and T max with the PMPGP algorithm simulated fewer unphysically large outliers compared to that of models developed with the GP algorithm.

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