Estimating near‐surface air temperature across Israel using a machine learning based hybrid approach

Bin Zhou, Evyatar Erell, Ian Hough, Jonathan D. Rosenblatt, Allan C. Just, Victor Novack, Itai Kloog

International Journal of Climatology · 29 March 2020 · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

In one sentence. Two-stage random forest hybrid estimates gridded 1 km intra-daily near-surface air temperature over Israel from satellite skin temperature, with out-of-sample R2 of 0.96 for air temperature.

Abstract

Abstract Rising global temperatures over the last decades have increased heat exposure among populations worldwide. An accurate estimate of the resulting impacts on human health demands temporally explicit and spatially resolved monitoring of near‐surface air temperature (Ta). Neither ground‐based nor satellite‐borne observations can achieve this individually, but the combination of the two provides synergistic opportunities. In this study, we propose a two‐stage machine learning‐based hybrid model to estimate 1 × 1 km2 gridded intra‐daily Ta from surface skin temperature (Ts) across the complex terrain of Israel during 2004–2016. We first applied a random forest (RF) regression model to impute missing Ts from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua and Terra satellites, integrating Ts from the geostationary Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) satellite and synoptic variables from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data sets. The imputed Ts are in turn fed into the Stage 2 RF‐based model to estimate Ta at the satellite overpass hours of each day. We evaluated the model's performance applying out‐of‐sample fivefold cross validation. Both stages of the hybrid model perform very well with out‐of‐sample fivefold cross validated R2 of 0.99 and 0.96, MAE of 0.42°C and 1.12°C, and RMSE of 0.65°C and 1.58°C (Stage 1: imputation of Ts, and Stage 2: estimation of Ta from Ts, respectively). The newly proposed model provides excellent computationally efficient estimation of near‐surface air temperature at high resolution in both space and time, which helps further minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiological studies.

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